Land development pro forma: how to know if a deal pencils
A pro forma is just a structured answer to one question: if I buy this land and build on it, do I make money? Strip away the spreadsheet and it's four moving parts — what you can build, what it costs, what it's worth, and what's left over. Here's each part in plain terms, with a worked example.
The four parts of every development pro forma
However complex a model looks, it resolves to this:
- What you can build — buildable units and gross floor area (GFA), set by zoning.
- What it costs — land + hard costs + soft costs + financing.
- What it's worth — gross development value (GDV) of the finished product.
- What's left — profit, and the margin or return that profit represents.
Step 1 — What you can build
Zoning, not ambition, sets the envelope. The key lever is the floor-area ratio (FAR) — buildable GFA is roughly lot size × FAR, then trimmed by setbacks, height limits, and parking. Unit count follows from usable area:
Step 2 — What it costs
Total project cost has four buckets:
- Land — the acquisition price.
- Hard costs — construction itself, usually GFA × cost per buildable foot.
- Soft costs — design, permits, fees, insurance, marketing; often 15–25% of hard costs.
- Financing — interest carry over the build and lease-up period.
Step 3 — What it's worth
Gross development value is the finished project's worth. For a sale, it's units × sale price per unit. For a rental, it's net operating income ÷ capitalization rate. GDV is the number every cost is measured against.
Step 4 — Profit and return
Profit is simply GDV − total cost. Two ratios tell you if it's enough:
- Profit margin on cost = profit ÷ total cost. Many developers want 15–25%.
- Return on cost vs. exit cap — the spread between your yield on cost and the market cap rate is your reward for taking development risk.
24 units · 31,200 GFA
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Land | $2,400,000 |
| Hard costs (31,200 sf × $260) | $8,112,000 |
| Soft costs (20%) | $1,622,000 |
| Financing & contingency | $1,050,000 |
| Total project cost | $13,184,000 |
A 22% margin on cost clears most developers' hurdle — this site is worth pursuing. Move land price up $500k or rents down 8%, though, and the same deal slips under 15%. That sensitivity is the whole game.
Build this pro forma for any address automatically.
Analyze your deal now →What moves the answer most
When you stress-test a deal, three inputs swing it more than anything else: land price, construction cost per foot, and achievable rent or sale price. A good feasibility tool lets you flex all three and watch the margin move, so you negotiate from numbers instead of hope.
Frequently asked questions
What is a development pro forma?
A projection of a project's costs and value: what you can build, what it costs, what the finished product is worth, and the profit and return left over. It's the financial test of whether a site is worth developing.
How do you calculate buildable square footage?
Buildable GFA is lot size × floor-area ratio (FAR), then constrained by setbacks, height, and parking. Unit count is net leasable area ÷ average unit size.
What profit margin do developers target?
It varies with risk, but many merchant developers look for a 15 to 25 percent profit margin on cost, or a yield-on-cost spread over the market cap rate that compensates for construction and lease-up risk.